SpaceX prices its record-breaking IPO today and starts trading tomorrow, June 12, under the ticker SPCX. Most people who wanted shares at the $135 offer price did not get them, because the deal was heavily oversubscribed. So now a very common question is lighting up every feed: should I just buy it the moment it starts trading? More broadly, should you ever buy a stock on its first day? Here is the honest, evidence-based answer.

The short answer

For most beginners, no. The first day of trading is usually the most hyped, most volatile, and often the most expensive moment to buy. There is rarely a good reason to rush in at the open, and several good reasons to wait.

Why the rush is the problem

The urge to buy on day one is almost entirely emotional. It is the fear of missing out, dressed up as decisiveness. But nothing about the first day makes a stock a better long-term investment. If a company is worth owning for the next ten years, it will still be worth owning next week, next month, and next quarter, very likely at a calmer and clearer price. The rush serves the hype, not you.

Why a stock pops on its first day

To see why day one is a bad time to buy, you have to understand what creates that exciting first-day jump. On the opening morning, a flood of demand from everyone who could not get shares at the IPO price meets a very small initial supply. In SpaceX's case, only a tiny sliver of the company is actually floating to the public at first. When lots of buyers chase few shares, the price spikes.

That spike, the famous first-day pop, is a story about scarcity and excitement, not about the company suddenly being worth more. The business did not change between the IPO price and the opening trade an hour later. Only the mood did. And mood is the most expensive thing you can ever pay a premium for.

What first-day pops actually do next

Here is the part the hype never mentions. The big first-day jump on a heavily promoted technology IPO frequently does not last. Analysts tracking these debuts have noted that hyped tech IPOs commonly give back a large portion of their early gains, on the order of 20 to 40 percent, within the first weeks to months as the initial excitement cools and more shares reach the market.

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The pattern to remember: Buy at the emotional peak of day one and you are the person most exposed to the retracement that often follows. The early pop tends to reward the insiders who got in at the IPO price, not the retail buyer who chased the open.

The SPCX example, concretely

Apply this to the stock everyone is watching. SpaceX set its IPO price at $135. If hype pushes the opening trade well above that on June 12, a beginner buying at the open is paying a premium over the very price the company itself chose, on the single most volatile day the stock will likely ever have. You are not getting in early. The people who got in early got the $135 allocation you probably could not.

This is the same trap we covered in should you buy the SpaceX IPO: confusing a famous company with a good purchase price. A wonderful company bought at a hype-inflated price can still be a poor investment, because what you pay determines what you earn.

The index-fund twist that makes waiting easier

Here is the genuinely reassuring part, and it is specific to a giant listing like this one. Major index providers are expected to add SpaceX to their indexes quickly: tracking inclusion is anticipated within days, and Nasdaq-100 eligibility is expected within a few weeks under updated rules for the largest new listings. When that happens, every index fund and ETF benchmarked to those indexes has to buy the stock automatically.

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What this means for you: If you own a broad index fund or a Nasdaq-100 fund, you are likely to end up owning a sensible, diversified slice of SpaceX within weeks, without buying a single share at the chaotic open. You may already be getting the exposure you are tempted to chase.

If you still want to own it directly

None of this is a prediction that SPCX will fall, and wanting to own a piece of a company you believe in is a real, legitimate desire. If you decide to buy directly anyway, do it with discipline rather than adrenaline:

  • Do not buy at the open. Let the first few days of wild price discovery pass.
  • Consider waiting for the first quarterly earnings as a public company, so you are buying on disclosed financials rather than hype.
  • Size it as a small, speculative position you could watch fall by half without it hurting your plan.
  • Make sure your foundation is built first: see the order of operations for funding your accounts.
  • Never sell diversified holdings to fund a single-stock bet on a debut.

What a beginner should actually do

The disciplined move on any first day of trading, SpaceX or otherwise, is almost always the same: do nothing urgent. Let the noise settle. The opportunity to own a great public company is not a one-day flash sale, even though the hype is engineered to make it feel that way. This is just one more version of the lesson that time in the market beats timing the market, and that reacting to the moment usually costs more than it earns.

The quick version

  • For most beginners, do not buy a stock on its first day of trading
  • The first-day pop reflects scarcity and excitement, not a change in the company's value
  • Hyped tech IPOs often give back 20 to 40 percent of early gains within weeks to months
  • Buying SPCX at the open likely means paying a premium over the $135 IPO price on its most volatile day
  • Index funds are expected to add SpaceX within weeks, so you may get diversified exposure without a day-one bet
  • If you must buy directly, wait past the open, keep it small, and build your foundation first
  • A great company bought at a hype price can still be a bad investment

The excitement of a first day is real, but it is the worst possible advisor. Let the stock trade, let the price find its footing, and decide later with a clear head. There is no prize for being first, only a premium for it.