Why were stocks mixed after the October jobs report?

U.S. employers added 165,000 jobs in October 2026, more than double what economists expected, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Stocks did not move together. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose while the Dow fell, one day after the Nasdaq's worst day since April 2025. Here is what the report showed, why it raised the odds of a December Fed hike, and why the market split.

What did the October jobs report show?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000 in October. Economists polled by LSEG expected 65,000, and a Dow Jones survey expected 59,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, with 7.1 million people unemployed. August was revised up from 133,000 to 186,000 and September from 29,000 to 60,000, which adds 84,000 jobs to the two earlier months. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in the month to $38.00 and 3.1% over twelve months. Per Fox Business, private payrolls added 159,000 jobs, professional and business services 70,000, health care 41,600, and manufacturing 19,000, against 5,000 expected.

How did the jobs report change December Fed hike odds?

The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, and its next decision is December 8 to 9. Strong hiring and faster wage growth give the Fed room to raise rates again to fight inflation. CME FedWatch put the chance of a quarter-point December hike at 76.8% after the report, according to Fox Business, up from about 70% on November 5. Sources differ on the earlier figure, and one report put Thursday's reading near 67%, so check the CME FedWatch tool for the live number. Lindsay Rosner of Goldman Sachs Asset Management said the payroll number "removed the traffic light at the December intersection for the Fed." See what the Fed did in October for the vote and the dissents.

What did stocks and Treasury yields do on November 6?

The Dow fell 237.33 points, or 0.46%, to 51,285.73. The S&P 500 rose 23.13 points, or 0.31%, to 7,376.86, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 264.43 points, or 1.09%, to 24,579.42, according to Yahoo Finance. Yahoo reported that the S&P 500 had its worst week since June. The Treasury Department's daily par yield curve shows the 10-year yield at 4.86% on November 6, up from 4.84% on November 5, and the 2-year at 4.51%, up from 4.46%. The 2-year rose more because it tracks Fed expectations most closely.

Why did the Nasdaq rise while the Dow fell?

Yahoo reported that chip stocks rebounded after Thursday's AI-led selloff, which lifted the Nasdaq, and it did not explain the Dow's decline. A reasonable interpretation: the Nasdaq fell 5.52% on Thursday and had the most to recover, while the Dow holds fewer technology stocks and has less to bounce back. Higher hike odds also weigh on companies that borrow heavily or depend on consumers. No data source separates these causes, so treat this as a reading of the pattern. The Dow still ended Friday below its November 4 close of about 53,356, which is 3.88% lower by my arithmetic. Friday's rebound recovered part of Thursday's drop and left the Nasdaq about 10.5% below its October 2 close of 27,477.31. See why the Nasdaq entered a correction.

The honest counterargument: is a strong jobs report good news for stocks?

• The case that it is good news: Seema Shah of Principal Asset Management called the report "a strong rebuttal to fears that the economy is heading into a meaningful slowdown." Stronger hiring supports consumer spending and company profits, and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both rose on the day.
• The case that it is a warning: the same strength raises the odds of a hike, and inflation is already high. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge showed prices up 3.6% over twelve months, as covered in what the Q3 GDP report said. Wage growth of 0.4% for the month beat the 0.3% economists expected. Under the surface, the BLS counted 2.0 million long-term unemployed, 27.6% of all unemployed people, and involuntary part-time work rose by 339,000 to 4.8 million. Strength was uneven.
• The resolution: both readings hold, and which one drives stocks depends on inflation. While inflation stays above the Fed's 2% goal, strong data raises hike odds and can pressure stocks. If inflation falls, the same data would read as good news. The December 8 to 9 decision and the November jobs and October inflation reports decide it.

What a beginner should actually do

1. Treat one report as one month. Revisions added 84,000 jobs to August and September. See ADP vs BLS jobs reports for why first estimates change.
2. Notice that the same type of report moved stocks in opposite directions. A weak report lifted stocks on October 2, and a strong one split them on November 6. Predicting the direction is a guess.
3. Keep contributions on schedule. Contributions that continued through Thursday's 5.52% Nasdaq drop bought shares at lower prices. See time in the market beats timing the market.
4. Check how much technology you own. See what a Nasdaq correction means for your portfolio.

The quick version

• October payrolls rose 165,000 against 59,000 to 65,000 expected, and unemployment fell to 4.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics
• August and September were revised up by a combined 84,000 jobs
• Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in the month and 3.1% over twelve months
• CME FedWatch put December 8 to 9 hike odds at 76.8% after the report, up from about 70% on November 5, and sources differ
• The Nasdaq rose 1.09% to 24,579.42 and the S&P 500 rose 0.31% to 7,376.86, while the Dow fell 0.46% to 51,285.73
• The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.86% and the 2-year at 4.51% on November 6, per the Treasury Department
• Long-term unemployment was 27.6% of the unemployed and involuntary part-time work rose by 339,000, so the strength was uneven
• The same kind of report lifted stocks on October 2 and split them on November 6, which shows why predicting a reaction is a guess

One jobs report can lift the Nasdaq and sink the Dow on the same afternoon. A plan that keeps contributing through both is the one that does not need the market to agree with the data.