Every few months, headlines say the Fed's "dot plot" signals another rate hike or cut. The chart looks like a scatter of dots, and it moves markets anyway. Here is what each dot means, what the September 2026 chart said, and how much weight a beginner should give a forecast that has been wrong before.

The short answer

The Fed dot plot is a chart where each dot shows one Federal Reserve official's projection for the federal funds rate at the end of a future year. Published four times a year, it shows where policymakers expect rates to go. In September 2026, 16 of 18 dots pointed to at least one more rate hike this year.

What is the Fed dot plot?

After four of the Fed's eight yearly meetings, in March, June, September, and December, the Federal Open Market Committee publishes a Summary of Economic Projections. One chart in it plots each participant's anonymous forecast of the appropriate federal funds rate at the end of the current year, the next two years, and the long run. Each participant gets one dot per year. The Fed publishes the full set on the Federal Reserve's projections page, along with the median, the middle dot, which is the number most headlines quote. Dots are forecasts under each official's own assumptions. The committee does not vote on them, and they do not commit anyone to a decision.

What did the September 2026 dot plot say?

Eighteen participants submitted projections on September 16, 2026. For the end of 2026, 12 placed their dot at 4.125%, which implies one more quarter-point hike from today's 3.75% to 4.00% range. Four placed it at 4.375%, implying two more hikes. Two placed it at 3.875%, implying no further change. The median for 2026 was 4.1%, and the medians for 2027, 2028, and 2029 were 4.1%, 3.9%, and 3.6%. The longer-run median was 3.2%. The same release projected PCE inflation of 3.7% and core PCE of 3.4% for 2026. Fed chair Kevin Warsh submitted no dot of his own, according to coverage of the meeting. See the full September rate decision for the meeting itself.

How to read a dot
The current range is 3.75% to 4.00%. A dot near 3.875% means no change this year. A dot near 4.125% means one more quarter-point hike. A dot near 4.375% means two more. The median is the dot in the middle of the 18.

Why does the dot plot move stocks and mortgage rates?

Markets trade on where rates are expected to go, and the dot plot is the Fed's own picture of that path. When the dots come in higher than investors expected, bond yields tend to rise, and mortgage rates, which follow the 10-year Treasury, tend to follow. The 10-year yield closed at 5.18% on September 24, per the Fed's daily data, and CME FedWatch priced roughly 73% odds of an October 28 hike, in line with a dot plot where 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more. See why mortgage rates are rising past 7% for the borrowing side.

The honest counterargument: can you trust the dot plot?

  • The case for paying attention: the dots are the only place officials show their individual views in numbers, and a shift in the median tells you how the committee's thinking changed since the last meeting.
  • The case against relying on it: the Fed's own December 2025 projections called for one rate cut in 2026, and the Fed raised rates instead. See why the Fed raised rates instead of cutting them. Officials revise the dots when data changes, and in September 2026 the 2027 dots ranged from 3.125% to 4.375%, a spread of more than a full percentage point.
  • The resolution: the dot plot is a snapshot of opinions that officials update as inflation, jobs, and oil prices move. It is a useful signal about direction and a poor guide to exact numbers.

What a beginner should actually do

  1. Read the median and the spread, not a single dot. A tight cluster means agreement and a wide one means uncertainty.
  2. Treat the chart as a forecast. Compare it with what markets are pricing, such as CME FedWatch odds for the next meeting.
  3. Keep contributions on schedule. A plan built around timing rate moves has to be right twice, on the Fed and on the market's reaction. See time in the market beats timing the market.
  4. Put idle cash to work at current yields. Higher expected rates keep savings and Treasury bill yields elevated. See where to keep cash when rates are high.
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The actionable takeaway: The dot plot shows what 18 Fed officials expect for rates, and in September 2026 most expect more hikes. It is a forecast with a track record of surprises, so use it to understand the direction of policy and leave the timing to the Fed.

The quick version

  • The dot plot shows each Fed official's projection for the federal funds rate at the end of future years
  • The Fed publishes it four times a year, in March, June, September, and December, as part of the Summary of Economic Projections
  • September 16, 2026: 12 officials projected one more hike this year, 4 projected two, and 2 projected none
  • The 2026 median was 4.1%, with medians of 4.1% for 2027 and 3.9% for 2028
  • Chair Kevin Warsh submitted no dot of his own
  • The December 2025 dot plot called for a cut in 2026, and the Fed hiked instead
  • Use the dots to read direction and keep your own plan independent of them

A dot plot is a group of opinions. It tells you what the people setting rates expect today, and their own history shows those expectations change.